Tarik Skubal headlines a deep group of available starters, while Michael King, Freddy Peralta, and Sonny Gray lead the competition behind the former Cy Young winner.
The pitching market entering the 2026-27 MLB offseason has a clear headliner, but plenty of uncertainty follows. Unlike last winter's debate over the top spot, this year’s rankings feature little disagreement. Detroit left-hander Tarik Skubal received unanimous support from our eight-person voting panel as the premier arm available in free agency.
The real debate begins with the tier below him. Michael King, Freddy Peralta, and Sonny Gray offer varied combinations of proven production, durability, and upside. Meanwhile, international standout Kaima Taira presents an intriguing high-ceiling wildcard. Here is a closer look at the 10 leading starters currently available on the open market.
1. Tarik Skubal, LHP
Skubal remains the unquestioned prize of the winter. While an elbow injury sidelined him for six weeks and a midseason league change complicated his campaign, his absence from the Cy Young finalists shouldn't overshadow his elite performance.
When on the mound, the lefty remained dominant, maintaining an ERA under 3.00 and a 2.51 FIP that mirrored his previous two stellar seasons. Questions regarding his NanoScope procedure earlier in the year are valid, but his successful return provided encouraging evidence of health. Standing head and shoulders above the competition, Skubal is poised to command one of the largest contracts of the offseason.
2. Michael King, RHP
King enters the open market after declining the remaining two years of his contract with the San Diego Padres. The decision follows a highly productive 2026 campaign that fully restored his value after injuries limited him to just 15 starts the year prior.
The 31-year-old right-hander established career highs with 32 starts and 185 innings, proving his durability as a front-line starter. He carried that momentum into October, allowing just one run and five hits across 14 postseason innings, which included a clutch two-inning save against Milwaukee in Game 3 of the NLDS.
However, analytical red flags persist. King's strikeout rate dipped below league average, and his 4.42 expected ERA ranked in the bottom third of the league (33rd percentile). Teams must weigh his stellar recent workload against these underlying regression risks.
3. Freddy Peralta, RHP
Peralta’s 2026 campaign was a tale of two cities. He struggled mightily with the New York Mets, posting a 4.99 ERA across 22 starts, before rebounding with a 3.25 ERA in 10 appearances after a trade to the Tampa Bay Rays. A strong postseason showing further rehabilitated his stock ahead of free agency.
Yet, a look under the hood suggests the surface turnaround may be deceptive. Peralta's expected statistics remained nearly identical between both stops, indicating his improvement wasn't driven by a dramatic shift in contact quality. Furthermore, his strikeout rate actually declined after moving to the American League.
Even with those caveats, the 30-year-old two-time All-Star offers immense value. He has shown top-of-the-rotation durability and still has several prime seasons ahead of him, making him one of the most attractive options available outside of Skubal.
4. Sonny Gray, RHP
Gray could be headed for his seventh Major League franchise after spending just one season with the Boston Red Sox. While he faces another potential relocation, his 2026 performance proved the veteran right-hander remains highly effective.
Gray finished the year with an 18-5 record and a 2.72 ERA, marking one of the strongest statistical seasons of any free agent arm. The primary concern lies in his advanced metrics, as declining strikeout and swing-and-miss rates raise questions about sustainability. Entering his age-37 season, teams will naturally be cautious regarding contract length and workload, but his dependable innings and track record ensure high demand.
5. Kaima Taira, RHP
Taira is the ultimate wildcard of this year's international market. The Saitama Seibu Lions have officially posted the 27-year-old right-hander, giving all 30 MLB clubs a window to pursue him.
His appeal centers on his youth and sensational overseas production, highlighted by a dominant 1.36 ERA and an explosive pitch mix. However, transitioning from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors carries inherent risk. Standing 5-foot-8, Taira faces durability questions regarding his ability to handle a full MLB starter's workload over a 162-game season. While a transition to the bullpen remains a distinct possibility, his massive upside makes him an alluring target for teams seeking a high-ceiling investment.
6. Trevor Rogers, LHP
Rogers’ major league career has been a rollercoaster. After bursting onto the scene as an All-Star and National League Rookie of the Year runner-up with the Miami Marlins in 2021, injuries and inconsistency stalled his progress. He briefly recaptured that early promise after a trade to Baltimore, flashing a brilliant 1.81 ERA in 2025, though a knee injury capped his season at just 18 starts.
His 2026 campaign followed a similarly turbulent path. Rogers tanked in the opening two months, carrying a 6.84 ERA through May, before pivoting to post a stellar 2.90 ERA over the final four months. The Orioles extended him a one-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer for 2027. Given his high ceiling, he is widely expected to decline it and test a thin market before the November 17 deadline.
7. Clay Holmes, RHP
Holmes successfully reinvented himself after spending the bulk of his career in the bullpen. A former anchor for the Yankees who secured 74 saves from 2022 to 2024, the right-hander seamlessly transitioned into the rotation upon joining the Mets ahead of the 2025 season.
The gamble paid off handsomely. Across 51 appearances (49 starts) over the last two years, Holmes pitched to a 3.44 ERA. His elite ground-ball metrics allow him to suppress hard contact and thrive in a starter's role. A fractured right fibula cost him three months in 2026, but his overall body of work remains stellar; his 119 ERA+ over the past two seasons ranks among the top marks for all pitchers with at least 250 innings. Holmes offers teams rare versatility, heavy ground-ball production, and proven durability.
8. Kevin Gausman, RHP
Gausman's midseason trade to the Chicago Cubs didn't yield the results either side envisioned. The 35-year-old veteran imploded in three of his nine starts with the North Siders surrendering at least five earned runs in each and served up 11 home runs down the stretch before failing to inspire confidence in an NL Wild Card exit against San Diego.
His final 2026 metrics (including a 4.38 ERA, his highest since 2019) reflect those struggles, yet his underlying traits remain elite. Gausman continues to command the strike zone, boasting well above-average chase and walk rates. He also led Major League Baseball with 91 strikeouts generated strictly by his splitter. While age and recent surface volatility introduce risk, his lethal pitch mix and veteran pedigree will still attract buyers.
9. Shota Imanaga, LHP
Imanaga profiles similarly to Gausman, relying on elite zone control and a devastating splitter to rack up empty swings. However, the lefty’s primary flaw is what happens when opposing hitters actually connect.
Imanaga is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, a trait that frequently punishes him. He surrendered 66 long balls over the last two seasons, tying for the most in MLB. Despite this structural flaw, he remained an above-average asset, turning in a cumulative 110 ERA+ across 2025 and 2026. A departure from Wrigley Field to a more spacious, pitcher-friendly park could unlock an extra gear, provided he can mitigate the damage from the long ball.
10. Foster Griffin, LHP
Griffin is the true wild card of this winter's starting pitching class. A former Kansas City Royals first-round pick, the lefty spent 2023 through 2025 reinventing himself in Japan after throwing just a handful of big-league innings early in his career.
His 2026 return to the majors was a certified breakthrough, resulting in a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals and his first career All-Star nod at age 30. Though a Trade Deadline move to Cleveland slowed his momentum (resulting in a 5.19 ERA), his pitching profile remains fascinating. Rather than relying on raw velocity, Griffin utilizes a dense, eight-pitch repertoire including three distinct fastball variations to constantly disrupt a hitter's timing. For teams hunting for back-end rotation depth, his unique arsenal offers considerable upside.
The Bottom Line
While Tarik Skubal commands the spotlight as the undisputed prize of the 2026-27 free-agent market, the depth behind him will ultimately shape the upcoming MLB winter. Teams missing out on the elite tier will find a rich secondary market filled with reliable veterans, high-groundball targets, and intriguing international options. Ultimately, medical evaluations and luxury-tax risk will dictate their final price tags, but the scramble for these remaining arms will fundamentally reshape the competitive landscape for 2027.